EM GDP NOWCASTS

Korea · India · IndonesiaLast run 2026-09-11 02:38:29 UTCTrim-25 ensemble of 21 models · 2026Q3
Korea · 2026Q3

Tracker firms toward 4.2%

4.20%↑ 0.83 since 02 Sep
YoY · fit dispersion ±0.68pp · 16 runs this quarter
2.33.24.04.95.702 Sep05 Sep08 Sep11 Sep2026Q2 outturn 3.75%4.20
Trim-25MeanMedianBest modelGDP outturn
India · 2026Q3

Tracker firms toward 9.1%

9.11%↑ 1.37 since 02 Sep
YoY · fit dispersion ±1.13pp · 16 runs this quarter
5.97.28.49.610.902 Sep05 Sep08 Sep11 Sep2026Q2 outturn 8.00%9.11
Trim-25MeanMedianBest modelGDP outturn
Indonesia · 2026Q3

Tracker eases toward 5.1%

5.10%↓ 0.44 since 02 Sep
YoY · fit dispersion ±0.26pp · 16 runs this quarter
3.84.45.05.66.202 Sep05 Sep08 Sep11 Sep2026Q2 outturn 5.29%5.10
Trim-25MeanMedianBest modelGDP outturn

Method

Quarterly GDP growth is nowcast from monthly indicators by 21 models under two ragged-edge treatments. Bridged imputes the target quarter's missing months with an ARIMA before estimation — the classic bridge treatment. Real-time builds each specification from exactly the indicator months observed at run time, with the state-space models absorbing the edge through the Kalman filter. The four ensembles — mean, median, trimmed mean of the best quartile by RMSE, and the single best model — are re-ranked under each run's information set. A nowcast only moves when the indicators feeding it move, so a flat stretch between releases is the tracker working, not failing. Click a country for every model, the data on file, and the release log.

EM GDP nowcaster · model outputs onlyUnderlying indicator data not redistributed